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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the foreign exchange market, various news is like the rotation of the weather vane, always affecting the trend of the currency and the decisions of investors. On July 22, 2025, many important news came one after another, bringing rich variables to the foreign exchange market.
Industry prospect rating downgraded: Fitch lowered its outlook for the 25% of the U.S. industry in 2025 to "deterioration" in mid-year update. This is mainly due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth and expected interest rates to remain high for a long time. The bleak economic outlook has caused investors' confidence in US dollar assets to suffer a certain impact. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, this may trigger funds to flow out of the United States and put potential downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate.
The "Big Beautiful" tax law affects the fiscal deficit: The latest estimates of the US Congress analysis agency show that in the next decade, the latest large-scale tax cuts and expenditure bill passed by the Trump administration, the bill known as the "Big Beautiful" (OBBBA), will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion. The huge fiscal deficit issue may affect the credit rating of the United States, which in turn affects the US dollar's position in the international monetary system and has a negative impact on the US dollar exchange rate.
The US Treasury Secretary made a statement to the Federal Reserve's policy: US Treasury Secretary Becent criticized the Federal Reserve's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, pointing out that the tariffs have almost no inflationary effect so far, and stressing the need to review whether the Federal Reserve has successfully performed its duties. At the same time, it is clearly stated that the Trump administration pays more attention to the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. Potential policy differences between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve may raise concerns about the stability of U.S. monetary policy, leading to U.S. dollar exchange rateVolatility intensifies.
Emergency to formulate a "no agreement" countermeasure plan: According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter revealed that the EU will hold a meeting as early as this week to develop a response plan for situations where a trade agreement with the United States may not reach a trade agreement, and may enable "anti-coercive tools" like never before. As the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline approaches, the Trump administration's tariff negotiation stance has become tough. The EU's move has increased uncertainty in trade relations between Europe and the United States. In the foreign exchange market, it may trigger the flow of safe-haven funds between the euro and the US dollar. If investors are worried about the escalation of trade conflicts, they may buy safe-haven currencies such as the euro, driving the euro to appreciate relative to the US dollar.
Enterprise electric vehicle procurement bill: The European vejck.cnmission is working on a new bill that plans to require large enterprises and car rental vejck.cnpanies to turn to electric vehicle procurement from 2030. It is estimated that if the policy is implemented, it will directly affect about 60% of the EU's new car sales and cover the market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year. Although this policy focuses on long-term environmental protection and industrial transformation, from a macroeconomic perspective, it may affect the development and employment of related industries in the EU, and thus have a potential impact on the euro zone economy and the euro exchange rate. If this policy can effectively promote the development of the EU electric vehicle industry and enhance economic vejck.cnpetitiveness, it may form long-term benefits for the euro; on the contrary, if it faces many difficulties during the implementation process and causes negative impacts on the economy, it may be detrimental to the euro exchange rate.
On the 21st local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Sijaldor said that in view of the EU's forced decoupling from Russia's energy, European energy prices are several times higher than those of other countries, and this problem can be solved by introducing more energy sources and building more transportation routes. Hungary plans to build new oil pipes to deal with energy problems, which may change the energy supply pattern in Europe. In the foreign exchange market, if Hungary's measures successfully alleviate the pressure on Europe's energy and stabilize the economy, it will support the euro; on the contrary, if it triggers further differences and confusion in the EU's internal energy policies, it may have an adverse impact on the eurozone economy and the euro exchange rate.
International oil prices fell slightly on July 22, with the main contract of US oil closing down 0.41% to US$65.78/barrel; the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.36% to US$69.03/barrel. As an important basic energy source in the world, crude oil has a wide impact on the economies of various countries. For oil importers, falling oil prices reduce import costs, which is conducive to improving trade revenue and balance, and may provide certain support for their own currencies; for oil exporters, falling oil prices may lead to a decrease in export revenue and put downward pressure on their own currencies. For example, some currencies of emerging market countries that rely on oil exports may face the risk of depreciation due to falling oil prices, which in turn affects their exchange rate relationship with other major currencies.
According to the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, in the week of July 18, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 96.14, up 0.54 month-on-month; the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index was 101.8, up 0.64 month-on-month; the SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was 90.9, up 0.38 month-on-month. The rise in the RMB exchange rate index shows the relative strength of the RMB in a basket of currencies. The stability of the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates will help enhance international investors' confidence in RMB assets, attract foreign capital inflows, and provide positive support for the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the offshore RMB (CNH) was 7.1710 against the US dollar, up 103 points from the previous day. This trend also reflects the market's short-term optimistic sentiment towards the RMB.
The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.83 on July 21, while most non-US currencies rose, the euro rose 0.60% to 1.1696 against the US dollar, the pound rose 0.61% to 1.3492 against the US dollar, the Australian dollar rose 0.26% to 0.6524 against the US dollar, the US dollar fell 1.00% to 147.3445 against the Japanese yen, the US dollar fell 0.32% to 1.3682 against the Canadian dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.47% to 0.7980. The decline in the US dollar index is mainly due to market concerns about the outlook for the US economy and uncertainty in trade negotiations. The general rise in non-US currencies has benefited from the weakening of the US dollar on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also related to its own economic fundamentals and policy factors. For example, the relative stability of the euro zone economic data and the expected adjustment of the ECB policy may drive the euro-dollar exchange rate to rise.
These positive and negative news are intertwined, and together they have shaped the vejck.cnplex pattern of the foreign exchange market on July 22, 2025. Investors need to pay close attention to it in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner and respond to market changes.
The above content is all about "【XM Forex】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully vejck.cnpiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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