The US dollar index breaks through the 98 mark, and a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is coming

On July 22, in the early trading of the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.87. On Monday, the dollar index fell as the stock market strengthened and reduced liquidity demand for the US dollar, coupled with lower U.S. Treasury yields, and the US dollar index fell, breaking the 98 mark and finally closed down 0.65% to 97.808. The yield on the US Treasury closed down across the board, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.384%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 3.876%. As the yields of the US dollar and US bonds weakened sharply, spot gold rose to a five-week high, once standing above the $3,400 mark, and finally closed up 1.39%, closing at $3,397.09/ounce; spot silver hit the $39 mark in the end, hitting a weekly high, and finally closed up 1.94%, at $38.93/ounce. International oil prices are under pressure as stagnant U.S. trade talks lingered concerns about crude oil demand, and the latest EU sanctions have not yet weakened Russia's energy exports. WTI crude oil fell below the $66 mark and finally closed down 0.48% at $65.68/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.31% at $68.38/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers at 97.87 Investors are responding to the resurfaced trade tensions and generally cautious market sentiment before the August 1 deadline. Despite the recent largely solid U.S. economic data, the dollar still feels the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to increase tariffs and the increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The dollar is backed by strong U.S. economic data last week, which reduces the possibility of the Fed's immediate rate cutAbility. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next support level, which is in the 96.70–96.90 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1692. The euro/dollar rose sharply on Monday, up more than 0.50%, as the U.S. dollar fell slightly, and the August 1 deadline was imminent due to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and trade uncertainty. Market sentiment is optimistic, and investors are looking forward to the financial reports of two large U.S. vejck.cnpanies. The chances of reaching a deal are decreasing as EU diplomats are exploring a series of countermeasures against the United States. This week, the EU's economic agenda will include consumer confidence, a fast Purchasing Managers index in July and the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision. Across the ocean, the U.S. schedule will release U.S. housing data, S&P Global Rapid Purchasing Managers Index, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains above 1.1690, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1815-1.1830.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3486. The pound opened a moderate rebound against the dollar on Monday, with the pound/dollar trading around 1.3480 during the U.S. session. The rise in the pound was due to a general weakening of the U.S. Treasury bond yields, upcoming trade negotiations and uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. Meanwhile, UK interest rate expectations remain volatile after last week's mixed macroeconomic data, leaving pound bulls cautiously optimistic ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) policy decision in August. Looking ahead, investors' attention will turn to Thursday's preliminary S&P Global PMI and Friday's UK retail sales report, which could impact short-term interest rate expectations and short-term trends in the pound. Technically, the successful testing of the 1.3500–1.3520 resistance level will push the GBP/USD toward the next resistance level 1.3630–1.3650.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3394.73. Gold prices soared more than 1% on Monday, hitting a five-week high of $3,401.41/ounce and closing at $3,396.91/ounce on the session, close at $3,396.91/ounce.. As the August 1 deadline for the U.S. to impose new tariffs on global trading partners approaches, market uncertainty provides strong support for gold.

Technical: As can be seen from the daily chart, gold prices remain firmly above all major simple moving averages (SMA), while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rose above the midline. Therefore, the technical side seems to be good for gold buyers, with short-term resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3377 per ounce in April's record rebound. Looking further up, the $3400/ounce integer level will challenge the bearish vejck.cnmitment, once it breaks through, this will open up more upside for gold prices and rise to the static resistance level around $3440/ounce. On the downside, the strong support for gold prices is around $3330 per ounce, that is, the confluence of the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. Sellers must strongly overcome the above support areas to test the 38.2% Fibonacci level $3297/oz before targeting the July low $3283/oz.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 65.55. Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as the latest European sanctions on Russian oil are expected to have little impact on supply, but investors weighed the potential decline in diesel supply to curb oil prices. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting on this trading day, paying attention to whether Powell was involved in monetary policy-related remarks, and continue to pay attention to news related to the international trade situation and geopolitical situation.

Technical: WTI crude oil futures closed at a low level on the last trading day, under pressure below EMA50, RSI weakened simultaneously and lost momentum. RSI enters the oversold range, and may brew a bottom divergence, which may bring about a technical rebound momentum in the short term; the medium-term bull structure has not been broken, and the market still slowly rises along the support slope.

Forex market trading reminder on July 22, 2025

①09:30 RBA releases minutes of July monetary policy meeting

②15:00 State vejck.cnrmation Office held a press conference on foreign exchange receipts and expenditure data in the first half of the year

③17:15 Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials delivered speeches

④20:30 Fed Chairman Powell was in one Welcome speech at the regulatory meeting

⑤22:00 US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

⑥ Next day 01:00 US Federal Reserve Director Bowman presided over the fireside conversation

⑦ Next day 02:30 New York crude oil August futures vejck.cnpleted the final on-site transaction

⑧ Next day 04:30 US to July 18 API crude oil inventories

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