Wonderful introduction:
Let your sorrows be full of worries, and you can't sleep, and you can't sleep. The full moon hangs high, scattered all over the ground. I think that the bright moon will be ruthless, and the wind and frost will fade away for thousands of years, and the passion will fade away easily. If there is love, it should have grown old with the wind. Knowing that the moon is ruthless, why do you repeatedly express your love to the bright moon?
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market vejck.cnment】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 24, 2025, the foreign exchange market continued a vejck.cnplex and changeable trend. After fluctuating in the previous trading day, the US dollar index continued to hover around key points, while non-US currencies showed a differentiated trend. Some emerging market currencies have experienced ups and downs due to their own economic data and policy factors, while the exchange rate game between the currencies of major developed economies such as the euro, the pound, the yen, etc. and the US dollar is still continuing, and are affected by multiple factors and fluctuating frequently.
Cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange reserves: Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on July 22 showed that in the first half of the year, the cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals in my country totaled US$7.6 trillion, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year, and the scale hit a record high in the same period in the same period. The total scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and foreign exchange sales was US$2.3 trillion, an increase of 3% year-on-year, the highest scale in the same period in history. At the same time, the vejck.cn inflow of cross-border funds in non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals was US$127.3 billion, continuing the vejck.cn inflow since the second half of last year. The vejck.cn inflow of cross-border funds in the second quarter increased by 46% month-on-month. At the end of June, my country's foreign exchange reserve balance was US$3317.4 billion, an increase of US$115.1 billion from the end of 2024. Under the vejck.cnbined effect of factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset valuation changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves has steadily increased. This series of data shows that China's cross-border trade and investment and financing activities are active, the foreign exchange market is resilient, which supports the stability of the RMB exchange rate. It also enhances the market's confidence in RMB assets, attracts more foreign capital inflows, and thus affects the supply and demand relationship of the RMB in the foreign exchange market., push the RMB to rise against some currencies.
Optimization of foreign exchange management policies: The "Notice of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Deepening the Reform of Foreign Exchange Management in Cross-border Investment and Financing (Draft for vejck.cnments)" has vejck.cnpleted the public solicitation of opinions. This includes facilitating scientific research institutions to receive overseas funds and promoting the "Kehuitong" pilot program across the country to further open up channels for overseas funds remittance; facilitating cross-border financing of science and technology enterprises, and uniformly increasing the amount of foreign debt borrowed by science and technology enterprises to US$10 million, and increasing the facilitation amount of selected enterprises from some of the "innovation points system" to US$20 million; facilitating domestic reinvestment of foreign-invested enterprises will vejck.cnpletely cancel the registration of domestic reinvestment for foreign direct investment across the country. These policy reforms will promote the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing, enhance market vitality, and attract more foreign capital to enter the Chinese market. In the long run, it will be conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and may promote the increase in the demand for the RMB in the foreign exchange market, and promote its appreciation of some currencies.
Some currencies themselves have strong performance: Judging from the rise and fall of currency pair exchange rates on that day, for example, the offshore RMB exchange rate against Papua New Guinea Kina was 0.0003, and the exchange rates of the RMB against Angolan Kwanza, Burundian Franc, Swiss Franc, Ethiopian Bill and other currencies have risen to varying degrees. This shows the strong position of the RMB in trading some currency pairs. At the same time, the exchange rate of Botswana Pula against the Canadian dollar rose and fell by 0.1880, indicating that Botswana Pula is in an appreciation trend in exchange with the Canadian dollar, which may be due to the positive economic data of Botswana, or the Canadian dollar is relatively weak due to Canadian domestic economic factors, which makes the currency pair appear in a trend that is conducive to Botswana Pula.
Continuous impact of poor performance in the first half of the US dollar: In the first six months of 2025, the ICE US dollar index fell by nearly 11%, which is the largest decline in the index in the first half of history since the Nixon era in 1973. At present, the market is still pessimistic about the prospects of the US dollar. Many people on Wall Street expect that the US dollar will not be able to strengthen in the next year or so, and may even start a long-term depreciation cycle. The weakening trend of the US dollar affects market confidence in the US dollar, causing investors to reduce their holdings of US dollar assets, sell the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, prompting the US dollar to decline against other currencies.
Increased demand for foreign exchange hedging: After the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stock market soared to attract a large number of global investors and accumulated huge exposure to the dollar. Recently, strong performance of international stock markets outside the United States, coupled with uncertainty in Trump's trade agenda, foreign investors holding dollar positions have changed their minds and increased demand for foreign exchange hedging. This increase in demand has become one of the key drivers of the weakening of the US dollar in the first half of the year, and it is expected that foreign investors will continue to hedge the risks of the US dollar, which will put ongoing downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate, resulting in an increase in selling pressure on the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Some emerging market currencies pressure: Judging from the exchange rate status of the day, the RMB exchange rate against the Brazilian real, Gibraltar pound, Jamaican dollar and other currencies is in a downward state. For some emerging market currencies, their economic foundation is relatively weak and they are susceptible to factors such as the global economic situation, trade frictions and instability in their own domestic policies. For example, if an emerging market country slows down economic growth, intensifies inflation, or faces external debt pressure, it will cause its currency to suffer selling pressure in the foreign exchange market and depreciate. Like the Brazilian real, it may be affected by Brazil's domestic economic structure problems and global vejck.cnmodity price fluctuations, which will lead to its depreciation trend when converting with currencies such as the RMB.
Potential risks in the euro zone: Although the euro has seen a significant increase against the US dollar in the first half of the year, it still faces some potential risks. If the euro zone economic data performs poorly in the future, such as the decline in key indicators such as manufacturing PMI, it shows that the economic growth momentum is insufficient, which may trigger market concerns about the economic outlook of the euro zone, leading to investors selling the euro and weakening the euro in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the uncertainty of US tariff policies may affect the deterioration of European trade conditions. Once the euro exchange rate approaches certain key resistance levels, its hedging risk-return ratio will deteriorate rapidly, which may limit the euro's further appreciation space and even lead to its depreciation in the long run.
vejck.cnbining the positive and negative news of the foreign exchange market today, the market's long-shou game is fierce. Some currencies such as the RMB have shown certain strength due to their own economic data and policy favorable policies, but the continued weakness of the US dollar and the difficulties faced by some emerging market currencies have also brought great uncertainty to the foreign exchange market. Investors need to pay close attention to the release of economic data in various countries during trading, such as the subsequent U.S. employment data, inflation data, and monetary policy adjustment trends of central banks in various countries, especially the results of policy meetings of major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. At the same time, factors such as geopolitical situation and trade frictions have also had a huge impact on the foreign exchange market and need to be continuously tracked in order to grasp the market trend in a timely manner and adjust investment strategies.
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