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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The United States and the European Union are expected to reach a tariff agreement, and large-scale anti-government protests broke out in Ukraine." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 24, spot gold trading was around $3,387.31 per ounce, and gold prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday. It was reported that the United States and the EU were about to reach a deal including a 15% tariff, which curbed safe-haven demand; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.44 per barrel, U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and the EU and the United States were expected to reach an agreement to limit oil prices.
U.S. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan on Tuesday to lower tariffs on automobile imports to 15% in exchange for $550 billion in investment and loans to the United States. This is the most important of a series of deals Trump has reached since April's announcement of a vejck.cnprehensive global taxation.
The dollar fell against the yen to 146.20 yen, the lowest level since July 11, as reports said Shigeru Ishiba planned to resign next month after a scattered defeat in the Senate election. Shigeru Ishiba denied the report that he had decided to resign, saying it was "completely unfounded". Juan Perez, senior trading director at MonexUSA in Washington, said, "The main factor driving the USD/JPY trend is related to political anxiety, as the Prime Minister seems to feel some pressure to consider resigning. The agreement currently helps automakers, but also makes the market wonder whether tariffs will increase at any time, as tariffs will not disappear as they act as a tool to negotiate anything. Japan, as a developed economy, agrees to new terms of trade, does worry that successful use of tariffs will incentivize it to continue using the tariff threat."
New Zealand Fed chief economist Paul Conway) said in a speech today that rising global tariffs and economic uncertainty could “ease the medium-term inflationary pressure in New Zealand” and drag the country’s economy back to mid-2026. While the U.S. faces rising costs due to supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs, Conway said New Zealand is more likely to experience deflation due to slowing global growth and falling import prices.
He stressed that strong export prices—especially dairy and beef—and lower domestic interest rates are currently supporting the economy. But the widespread uncertainty has led both consumers and businesses to take a wait-and-see attitude, which has curbed spending and delayed investment decisions.
In this context, Conway confirmed that the Fed maintains a dovish tendency. If inflation continues to ease as expected, "there is room for further reduction of the OCR."
Japan's vejck.cnprehensive PMI remained flat at 51.5 in July. The service industry drove growth, rising from 51.7 to 53.5, while the manufacturing industry fell from 48.8 to 50.1.
S&P Global noted that manufacturers' output and new orders were weak due to tariff uncertainty and cautious customer behavior. Confidence weakened across the board, and optimism fell to its second lowest level since August 2020. The vejck.cnpany's response is to slow recruitment to its lowest level in 18 months.
On the positive side, cost pressures have eased, and investment inflation is at a four-year low, suggesting that the overall news “inflation may be further alleviated in the summer.”
The Australian private sector expanded stronger in July, with the S&P Global vejck.cnprehensive Purchasing Managers Index rising from 51.6 to 53.6. The service industry led the rise, rising sharply from 51.8 to 53.8. The manufacturing industry recovered from 50.6 to 51.6, with stronger growth.
S&P Global pointed out that at the beginning of the third quarter, growth in vejck.cnmercial activity "accelerated", one of the fastest growth in new manufacturing orders in two and a half years.
However, optimistic data also brings warning signs. Business confidence slid to eight-month lows, while manufacturers cut procurement and slowed hiring. More importantly, price pressures have “intensified” this month, indicating a renewed upward risk of inflation and “increasing uncertainty in interest rate outlook.”
European officials said the United States' benchmark tariff on EU goods was 15%, and the White House responded: Trump had speculated before the announcement.
The EU is preparing to impose a 30% tariff on U.S. goods worth 100 billion euros without an agreement. US Treasury Secretary Besent: EU's retaliation preparation measures are a negotiating strategy.
Trump announced that the United States and Japan reached a trade agreement: tariff rate on Japan is 15% and Japan's US$550 billion investment in the United States.
Trump: Simple tariffs of 15% to 50% will be imposed on most countries. If major countries can be convinced to open up markets to the United States, they will always be willing to give up tariff clauses.
American UnionChu--① Trump criticized Powell again, saying that FOMC should take action. Trump said that a rate cut could save trillions of interest, and the "Federal Medal" said it was impossible.
Bester: We are not in a hurry to achieve success when it vejck.cnes to the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump has said he will not fire Powell.
U.S. House Speaker Johnson: He is "disappointed" with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The legal vejck.cnpliance of the firing of the Fed chairman is not yet known.
White House: Trump will promote the rapid construction of artificial intelligence data centers. The United States will cancel heavy AI development regulatory measures. Trump: The AI vejck.cnpetition requires patriotism in Silicon Valley and urges technology vejck.cnpanies to "put America first."
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