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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market vejck.cnment】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the foreign exchange market, various news always affects the trend of the currency, and investors need to pay close attention to seize investment opportunities and avoid risks. The following is a summary of important positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market on July 28, 2025.
Recently, the performance of US economic data has caused market concerns about its economic prospects. U.S. durable goods orders in June unexpectedly fell 9.3% month-on-month, far exceeding the expected -10.8%. Although the data is slightly better than expected, the overall trend is still showing a downward trend, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure, which poses a potential negative for the US dollar. In terms of policy, the market pays great attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although Fed officials' speeches did not send clear signals, the market generally expects the Fed to adopt a more relaxed policy in the future to stimulate economic growth. If the expectation of interest rate cuts further heats up, it will weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar, drive the US dollar to depreciate, and benefit the exchange rates of other currencies against the US dollar.
China's economy maintained steady growth in the first half of the year, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, and the economic structure continued to be optimized. Li Bin, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that high-quality economic development, steady progress of opening up to the outside world, and continuous strengthening of the resilience of the foreign exchange market will support my country's foreign exchange market to continue to maintain stable operation. In addition, China's foreign exchange reserves were US$3317.4 billion as of the end of June, up US$32.2 billion from the end of May, and maintained growth for six consecutive months, which provided strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the "Only Deepen Cross-border TransNotice on matters related to the reform of foreign exchange management of overseas investment and financing (Draft for soliciting opinions)" involves a number of facilitation policies, which will promote cross-border investment and financing activities, enhance the international use of the RMB, and form a positive for the RMB exchange rate.
The euro zone economic data has performed relatively optimistically recently, providing certain support for the euro. For example, the manufacturing PMI in some countries has rebounded, indicating that there are signs of recovery in the economy. The ECB maintains a cautious attitude in monetary policy, and although it temporarily keeps interest rates unchanged, it closely monitors changes in the economic situation. If the economy continues to improve, it may affect the market's expectations for the future policy direction of the ECB, promote the appreciation of the euro, and form a positive for currency pairs such as the euro against the US dollar.
The US dollar index has shown a weak downward trend recently, setting a new low in the stage. CFTC data shows that short positions in the US dollar index continue to increase, and speculators are strongly bearish about the outlook for the US dollar. In terms of capital flow, affected by US economic data and policy expectations, funds are flowing out of US dollar assets and turning to other monetary assets, especially some safe-haven currencies and currencies in countries with better economic prospects, which has a significant negative for the US dollar and is beneficial to other currencies.
The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated in recent fluctuations, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar also showed strong resilience. In the first half of the year, the central government exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar rose by 298 basis points. Judging from the inflow of foreign capital, since 2025, foreign capital has allocated RMB assets generally relatively stable, and the scale of foreign capital investing in RMB bonds has increased. In the first half of the year, foreign capital increased its holdings of domestic stocks and funds by US$10.1 billion, reversing the overall vejck.cn reduction trend in the past two years. Especially in May and June, the vejck.cn increase in holdings increased to US$18.8 billion, indicating that global capital is intensifying its willingness to allocate domestic assets, providing upward action for the RMB exchange rate.
The uncertainty in Trump's tariff policy continues to affect the foreign exchange market. Although there have been previous measures to suspend heavy taxes in some countries for 90 days, market concerns about shrinking global trade volumes still exist. Trade frictions may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth and affect the exchange rates of currencies in various countries. For example, currencies that are more dependent on U.S. exports may face depreciation pressure due to trade hinderment, while some safe-haven currencies may be favored by a decline in market risk appetite. The uncertainty of trade frictions has also had a negative impact on the US dollar, and investors' confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset has been shaken.
The global geopolitical situation is tense. For example, although the situation in the Middle East has not escalated large-scale conflicts, there are many potential instability factors. Geopolitical risks will trigger a rise in market risk aversion sentiment, with traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss francsIt often appreciates by being sought after by funds. At the same time, geopolitical tensions may interfere with international trade and investment, affect the economic and currency exchange rates of relevant countries, and bring more uncertainty and volatility to the foreign exchange market.
Overall, the foreign exchange market has a vejck.cnplex and changeable trend under the influence of multiple factors. Investors need to vejck.cnprehensively consider various positive and negative news when trading, pay close attention to the release of economic data, policy trends and the development of geopolitical situations, and formulate investment strategies with caution.
The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Review】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully vejck.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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