US dollar suppresses below 98, US and Europe reach a trade agreement

On July 28, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.57. Last Friday, the US dollar index rebounded for the second consecutive day, finally closing up 0.219% to 97.66, but the weekly line still closed negative. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.392%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.94%. As signs of progress in US-EU trade negotiations suppressed safe-haven demand, spot gold fell for three consecutive days, hitting a new low for a week, and finally closed down 0.92%, closing at $3,337.18/ounce, erasing all the gains during the week; spot silver plunged in the US, once falling below the 38 mark, rebounded slightly in the late trading, and finally closed down 2.39% to $38.17/ounce. Some negative economic news and expectations of increased supply have led to a fall in international oil prices, but optimism about an international trade agreement that could boost global economic growth and future oil demand has limited the decline. WTI crude oil fell to a more than three-week low and finally closed down 1.67% at $64.85 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.41% at $67.6 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.57. Boasted by strong economic data, these data suggest the Fed may remain patient in resuming interest rate cuts, coupled with progress in tariff negotiations that have made the trade situation clearer and eased market uncertainty. Although the US dollar index showed a short-term technical rebound, the overall trend is still suppressed by political risks and cautious expectations of central bank policies. The Fed's upcoming vejck.cnments are crucial. If Powell suggests maintaining interest rates stability over the long term or suggests a rate cut under political pressure, the dollar may struggle to maintain its recent gains. technologyOn the surface, breaking through the resistance level 98.00–98.20 will push the US dollar index toward the next resistance level 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1765. The ECB held interest rates unchanged at 2% as expected on Thursday and sent signals of optimism about the economic outlook. The EU and the United States are close to reaching a trade agreement, which has led the market to reassess the possibility of another rate cut this year. Technically, the nearest support level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.1675–1.1690. A break below the 1.1675 level will push the EUR/USD toward the next support level 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3439. Despite the pullback in the second half of the week, the GBP/USD ended the week with an increase as the dollar recorded its biggest weekly decline in a month. The dollar's exchange rate against major currency pairs fell to its lowest level in two weeks as trade tensions eased, reducing its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. Technically, GBP/USD closed below the previous support level 1.3500–1.3520 and was moving towards the next support level, which is in the range of 1.3370–1.3390.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3332.61. The gold market fluctuated sharply last week, with gold prices soaring in the first two trading days of this week, but then the gold price fell sharply, weakening for three consecutive trading days, and finally the gold price closed down this week. Analysts pointed out that positive progress has been reported in Trump's trade negotiations, and market risk appetite has rebounded, which has hit gold's safe-haven demand.

Technical: The short-term technical prospects highlight the hesitation of gold buyers. The daily chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still slightly below 50, and gold prices have struggled to stay away from these two levels after breaking through the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 50-day SMA) earlier this week. On the upside, $3400/oz (static level, integer level) constitutes the first gold price resistance. If this resistance is exceeded, the gold price will next aim at $3450/oz (static level) and $3500/oz (historical high, end of the uptrend from January to June). On the downside, if the gold price remains at $3,340 per ounce (mobile on the 20th dayBelow the moving average and 50-day moving average, technical sellers may still be interested. In this case, $3285/oz (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) may be considered the next support level, followed by $3250/oz (100-day moving average) and $3150/oz (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 65.06. International oil prices fell to three-week lows last Friday, as sluggish economic data worried traders, and signs of supply growth continued to weigh on oil prices. "Oil prices are in a stalemate, mainly due to the lack of clear market drivers," said PVM analyst John Evans. People familiar with the matter revealed on Thursday that the United States is preparing to allow partners of Venezuelan state-owned oil vejck.cnpany PDVSA to operate locally, starting with Chevron.

The technical market holds the strong side of the 52-week moving average of $64.35 and is cautiously bullish. With the continued trend of the long-term fulcrum of $65.37, the upward trend will be further strengthened.

Forex market trading reminder on July 28, 2025

①18:00 UK CBI retail sales difference in July

②20:00 OPEC + Ministerial Supervision vejck.cnmittee was held

③22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activities Index in July

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