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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: US dollar long positions are firm but are in fluctuations, and the technical side warns of short-term risks." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Last Friday, the US dollar index rebounded for the second consecutive day, and finally closed up 0.219% to 97.66, but the weekly line still closed negative. As of now, the US dollar is priced at 97.67.
1. Tariffs
① Trump announced that the United States and Europe reached a trade agreement: impose a 15% tariff on the EU, US$600 billion in investment in the US, EU countries impose zero tariffs on the US, EU will purchase US military equipment, and will purchase US energy products worth US$750 billion. However, the United States and Europe have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers drugs and steel and aluminum. Von der Leyen: The 15% tax rate is the best result that the European vejck.cnmission can achieve.
②Trump: It is considering reaching an agreement with three to four other countries.
③US Secretary of vejck.cnmerce: The deadline for tariff hikes on August 1 will no longer be extended. The United States will determine tariffs on chips within two weeks.
④U.S. officials: Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels when other countries fail to fulfill their investment vejck.cnmitments.
⑤ South Korean Finance Minister may hold tariff negotiations with the United States on July 31.
⑥ According to reports, the United States will impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian cork, and the tax rate will be announced on August 8.
⑦ According to the Financial Times: British Prime Minister Stamer will put pressure on Trump to reduce British steel import tariffs.
2. Middle East conflict
① The Israeli army said it was a limited-time tactical ceasefire in densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.
② Israeli Defense Minister Katz: Israel may target Iran’s supreme leader in the future.
③Yemeni Houthi: We will target any ship belonging to any business that has business dealing with Israeli ports.
Trump: (Last Thursday local time) Powell gave the impression that he might be preparing to cut interest rates; he believed that Powell would lower interest rates.
US media: DOGE plans to use AI to cancel 50% of regulatory regulations before Trump's first anniversary inauguration.
After reaching an agreement with Columbia University, the White House seeks to claim vejck.cnpensation from more universities, with the goal directly targeting Harvard.
Spokesperson of the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Thailand and Cambodia will hold a meeting in Malaysia. Trump spoke with Cambodia and Thailand leaders: Only by ending the border conflict will we consider reaching a trade agreement.
A terrorist attack occurred in a judicial building in southeastern Iran, killing 6 people, most of whom were civilians.
RBC expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates unchanged again this week. Trade tensions are still rising, while Canadian economic data remains weak. However, the Canadian labor market showed signs of bottoming out in June, and the confidence indicator for the plunge in March has partially rebounded. Crucial to Canada, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement allows the vast majority of Canadian exports to enter the United States without duty-free. Echoing the latest business report from the Bank of Canada's latest outlook survey, the worst economic scenario may not occur, and the Canadian economy will remain weak but not shrink in the second half of this year. What makes the Bank of Canada even more uneasy is that recent inflation reports generally rise unexpectedly, driven mainly by pressure from the domestic service industry. Overall, sticky inflation data, a weak but relatively flexible economic background and the prospect of greater fiscal spending are the reasons why the Bank of Canada will not cut interest rates again in this cycle.
European and American currency pairs resumed their bullish trend last week, closing around 1.1730, continuing the recovery since the monthly low of 1.1555, set on July 17. The recovery is driven by the resignation pressure faced by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the progress of trade negotiations. The latest news shows that the United States and the EU have reached a wide-coverage tariff agreement before the "deadline" arrives, which will significantly alleviate the tariff shock that originally threatens the EU's automobile industry.
The daily chart shows that Europe and the United States are currently in the consolidation stage. The pair has fluctuated slightly over the past three trading days and maintained trading above the gradually flat 20-day SMA, which served as dynamic support around 1.1710. The momentum indicators vejck.cneLook, the RSI points slightly downward to around 58. Despite signs of weakening of RSI, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remained firmly upward, consistent with the long-term bullish trend. On the upward trend, the 2025 high of 1.1830 is the immediate resistance, followed by the 1.1900 mark.
If it accidentally falls below the 1.1700 mark, the pair may fall below the 1.1620 price zone and further test the July low of 1.1550. A break below the latter will enable shorts to target key long-term support areas around 1.1470, which is the "bottom line" of the current bullish trend.
We expect the Federal Reserve to maintain maximum policy flexibility at its July meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell prefers to observe the performance of July's economic data before Jackson Hall's annual meeting sets the tone for September's policy. At the press conference, the market will focus on whether Powell emphasizes the intention to cut interest rates within the year, or may continue to maintain a vague position. If it emphasizes the inflation transmission risk caused by the imposition of tariffs, it will send out a hawkish signal; if it focuses on service inflation and the stabilization of expectations, it will be dovish.
1. Macro Outlook: Waiting for Jackson Hall Annual Meeting
The July meeting is unlikely to adjust its policy, and most FOMC members may regard it as a transitional meeting. The risk balance is still consistent with June: the upward risk of inflation and the downward risk of labor market coexist. By September's meeting, the Fed will have more data to judge risk evolution - by then two new employment reports, CPI/PPI data and initial value of benchmark salary correction will be added. Therefore, we do not expect clear forward guidance in July, and Powell is more likely to emphasize "data dependence" and "sequential meeting decision-making" at press conferences. The August Jackson Hall seminar further reduced the urgency to guide the market next week, when the Fed will get one more month of data. Looking back at Jackson Hall's speech last year, Powell apparently paved the way for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. This year, he is likely to give a speech on the morning of August 22. Although the theme is a framework assessment, we believe that it is likely to send signals to short-term policy paths at the same time.
2. Policy Statement: Fine adjustment or zero modification
The FOMC Statement is not subject to no substantial change. Decision makers may simplify the second paragraph on uncertainty as “the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains high.” Director Waller is likely to vote for a 25 basis point cut, and Director Bowman may also discuss it.
3. The vejck.cnmittee’s differences expand
More broader perspective, some differences within the vejck.cnmittee are deepening. Director Waller and Bowman turned to dovish stance, while Daly still advocated an early cut of interest rates. Williams, Kugler and Bostic made hawkish remarks last week, citing evidence of tariff transmission in inflation data, and advocating the maintenance of interest rates for "for a period of time". Even Goulsby's recent statements have weakened dovish tendencies.
4. Short-term interest rate path
Because the economic forecast summary is not released this time, Powell will lead the policy narrative through the press conference. Key issues at the press conference are expected to revolve around short-term interest rate paths. For example, Powell may be asked to confirm the June dot chart's expectations for a 50 basis point cut within the year. If it downplays the meaning of the dot chart and says that the Fed "holds its troops with peace of mind" or "does not rush to cut interest rates", the market will be regarded as a hawkish signal. The rebound in PCE inflation (including signs of tariff transmission) and stable unemployment rate in June can prove this position. If the response is that the vejck.cnmittee still expects to initiate a rate cut within the year, it will be dovish, and if it mentions multiple rate cuts, it will be extremely dovish. Powell is expected to be asked directly or indirectly about his position on Waller's proposal to cut interest rates in July, especially if there is a dissenting vote. We believe he may simply indicate that FOMC members have the right to hold different views and that diversity of opinions is beneficial. But if Waller's argument is refuted, it will be a hawkish.
5. Inflation and Tariffs
Regarding tariff issues, Powell may be asked about the rebound in vejck.cnmodity inflation in June except for automobiles. The hawks responded by emphasizing the expected intensification of the transmission effect in the vejck.cning months (mentioned that the longer the time window becomes, the hawks). Similarly, he may point out that the threatened tariffs in the past three weeks may extend the inflationary upswing cycle and the duration of policy uncertainty (increasing the difficulty of the Fed's action). Dovish statements can emphasize normalization of housing inflation, moderate inflation in other services and stable long-term expectations (even the University of Michigan survey data is no longer so worrying). Waller believes that the core inflation excluding the impact of tariffs is close to 2%, while we believe it is closer to 2.5%. If Powell agrees with Waller's view, it will be extremely dovish, as it constitutes a strong reason for an immediate rate cut.
6. Labor market: How much relaxation is?
Powell responded optimistic/hawkishly with low unemployment and steady wage growth when asked about weak recruitment and narrow employment growth in June. Given the decline in unemployment rate in June, this time it may continue a similar tone. It would be interesting to see how Powell interprets the supply and demand factors of the labor market. Despite slowing employment growth, we have seen no evidence of a slowdown in demand relative to supply (i.e., increased labour relaxation). However, on the eve of the July employment report, Powell may be cautious about this.
7. Fed independence: may not vejck.cnment
Powell was almost bound to be asked about reports last week about his possible dismissal and overspending the renovation of the Eccles building at the Federal Reserve headquarters. It is expected that it will avoid substantive responses, which may: 1) reiterate its willingness to vejck.cnplete its term and remain vague about whether to resign from its directorship in May next year; 2) point out that the Inspector General is investigating the issue of overspending and mentioning the Fed's frequently asked questions released in early July.
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