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After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to "splash cold water"!

Post time: 2025-08-25 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: After Powell turned to the pigeon and triggered the market, Fed officials came out to "splash cold water"!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On August 25, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.91. Last Friday, the dollar index plunged in the session and finally closed up 0.4934% to 97.7, the biggest single-day drop since early August, erasing all week-over gains. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 4.264%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 3.709%. Spot gold rose sharply after Powell's speech, hitting a high of $3378.8/oz intraday, and finally closed up 1% to close at $3372.11/oz; spot silver followed gold and finally closed up 1.72% to $38.85/oz. International crude oil remained stable, with the first rise in three weeks last week, given the still uncertainty surrounding the potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude oil remained above $63 and finally closed up 0.36% to $63.65 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.25% to $67.32 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at $97.91. The index traded around 98.7 points before Powell made his speech. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that interest rate cuts may be cut at the September meeting but did not make a promise. Technically, the US dollar index fell below support level 98.00–98.20 and moved towards the 97.70 level. If the U.S. dollar index closes below 97.70, it will move towards the next support level 97.10–97.30.

After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to splash cold water!(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1698. While the labor market appears to be in equilibrium, it is a strange balance due to a significant slowdown in both supply and demand for workers, an unusual situation that shows that the downside risks for employment are rising, Powell said. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move to the next resistance level 1.1800–1.1815.

After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to splash cold water!(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3498. Strong inflation and growth data suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) may delay further easing. This allowed the pound to briefly retest the resistance at 1.3500, but the buyer failed to maintain it at a higher level. Technically, successfully testing the resistance level 1.3485–1.3500 will open the road for testing the next resistance level 1.3580–1.3595.

After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to splash cold water!(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3364.41. Gold prices surged 1% last Friday as Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall's annual central bank seminar was like a timely rain that extinguished market concerns about inflation and ignited investors' eager anticipation for a rate cut in September. This not only drove the gold price to rebound strongly, but also caused the US dollar exchange rate to fall sharply, and the gold market ushered in a new round of bullish waves. Although physical demand in Asia is still sluggish, professional Wall Street analysts and ordinary investors are all confident about the prospects of gold. This week focuses on speeches by Fed officials such as New York Fed Chairman Williams, the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in July, the August Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index, the revised annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the second quarter, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 23, and the US July PCE data.

After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to splash cold water!(图4)

Technical: From a technical perspective, spot gold is currently in a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating that market volatility is significantly converging. The upper boundary of this pattern can be traced back to the April 22 high of $3,500, while the lower boundary connects the May 15 low of $3,180.86. Gold prices are currently fluctuating around the 20-day index moving average (EMA) of $3351, indicating that the short-term trend is neutral and market participants have not yet formed a clear direction. The 14th-day relative strength index (RSI) fluctuates within the range of 40.00-60.00, indicating that market sentiment is hesitantThere is a lack of clear momentum drive. vejck.cnbined with the analysis of wave theory, well-known institutions pointed out that gold prices performed weakly around $3,334/ounce, failed to break through the key resistance level, and may remain weak in the short term.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 63.60. Oil prices stabilized last Friday, with oil prices rising for the first time in three weeks last week amid uncertainty over the possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. This week focuses on speeches by Fed officials such as New York Fed Chairman Williams, the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in July, the August Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index, the revised annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the second quarter, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 23, and the US July PCE data.

After Powell turned to pigeon and ignited the market, Fed officials came out to splash cold water!(图5)

Technical: Crude oil prices maintain a bullish trend, with a key resistance around US$64.50. Once a breakthrough is made, it may open up the upward space to point to US$67.00. Direct support is in the range of $62.50 to $63.00, and there may be stronger support points around $62.00. It is expected to fluctuate around $63.50 in the short term. If the resistance level is broken, it may accelerate to rise above $64.50. Demand data weakens or the ease of conflict between Russia and Ukraine may pull prices back to support.

Forex market trading reminder on August 25, 2025

①16:00 Germany's August IFO Business Freight Index

②22:00 The total number of new home sales in the United States in July was annualized

③22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in August

④The next day, the Federal Reserve Logan delivered a speech

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