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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The negotiations between the US and South Korea investment funds are in a deadlock, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 9th". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.15%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.16%. The German DAX index fell 0.64%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.22%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.21%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.06%.
The United States and South Korea are deadlocked over the details of the $350 billion investment fund; the fund is part of a broader trade agreement between the two countries. South Korean senior officials warned that if the two sides cannot narrow their differences, even shipbuilding cooperation may face risks. Kim Yong-bang, the policy director of the South Korean Presidential Office, said at a forum on Tuesday (September 9) that Seoul has always emphasized to the United States that South Korea cannot accept the same terms as Japan's $550 billion investment vejck.cnmitment finalized last week, citing that there is a gap in the economic size of the two countries and may have an impact on the foreign exchange market.
European natural gas prices fall as traders assess supply before the heating season arrives, multiple negative factors offset concerns about further sanctions on Russia and its energy exports. Benchmark futures fell after a trading day jumped to a nearly two-week high. European LNG imports remain strong, with recent supply hitting 13-week highs, helping the region cope with Norway's overhaul operations and Algeria's cuts in supply to Italyfew. “News on Russia’s related sanctions will drive short-term price volatility in the gas market,” said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank.
Saudi Aramco will lower the official price of Arab light crude oil sold to Asia, exceeding market expectations, indicating that while the world's largest crude oil exporter continues to increase production, it is increasing the attractiveness of its crude oil through price means. DNBCarnegie analysts said the price cut was $1 a barrel, vejck.cnpared with the market's previous expected decline of $0.50 a barrel. Analysts said this could mean that Saudi Arabia is using price means to bring increased production to the market.
RBC Capital Markets strategist said in a report that UK long-term Treasury yields may fall in the vejck.cning months after the UK's 30-year Treasury yield hit a 27-year high last week. The bank said the UK Debt Management Office increased the proportion of short-term Treasury bond supply between October and December, which could support demand for long-term Treasury bonds, easing pressure on long-term bond yields. The Bank of England is also expected to reduce Treasury sales under its quantitative tightening plan. Strategists say this should support UK long-term Treasury bonds.
On September 9, local time, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Karas, said in a debate at the plenary meeting of the European Parliament that the European vejck.cnmission is preparing to suspend trade relations with Israel and terminate research partnerships, but governments are hindering further measures. She said, "The option for the EU to take further action is clear and is still under discussion, but member states have differences on how to make the Israeli government change its policy, and we as a coalition cannot take action unless the member states agree on the action." It is reported that EU member states are deadlocked on whether to impose sanctions on Israel due to the ongoing war in Gaza, Spain and Belgium have unilaterally taken tough measures, while Germany and other countries are less willing to target Israel.
The Spanish government announced on the 9th that it would prohibit Israeli National Security Minister Itamar bin Geville and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country in response to Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip and its humanitarian impact on Palestinian civilians. Spanish Foreign Minister Alvarez said after the cabinet meeting that day that the move was part of the sanctions against Israel proposed by Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez on Monday, aiming to deny "all people involved in genocide, human rights violations and war crimes entering Spain and the EU." He also stressed that the Spanish government still supports the "two-state solution" and will not sever diplomatic relations with Israel for the time being.
⑴ On Tuesday, the United States will release two important economic data. First is the National Federation of Independent Enterprises (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. The index has been rising for three consecutive months, with the July data reaching 100.3, significantly higher than the historical average of 98. While Trump’s tariff rhetoric continues to raise market concerns, the proportion of business owners who believe inflation is the most important issue has dropped to its lowest point in four years, while labor quality issues have risen to the top. ⑵ Another more influential event is the preliminary benchmark correction of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the year ended March 2025. The market generally expects that the revised employment data will be significantly lowered, with the downward revision range of up to nearly one million people. ⑶ This major amendment will be based on more vejck.cnprehensive quarterly employment and wage census data, which may reveal the true state of the labor market. Such a large-scale downward revision will undoubtedly have an impact on current market sentiment and may have an impact on the Fed's future policy path. ⑷In addition, the Ministry of Finance will auction 4-week, 8-week and 17-week Treasury bills and issue 85 billion US dollars of 6-week Treasury bills and 58 billion US dollars of 3-year Treasury bonds. These moves will test market demand for short- and medium-term U.S. debt.
⑴ Data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance on Tuesday showed that the country successfully raised 24.45 trillion rupiah from government bond auctions, but the weighted average yields of some bonds rose significantly, of which the yields of bonds due in August 2040 reached $6.76921\%$, and the bonds due in July 2054 were as high as $6.93976\%$. ⑵ It is worth noting that the one-year Treasury bill that expires in December 2025 failed to receive any winning bids, which may indicate that the market's preference for short-term debt has been adjusted or a wait-and-see attitude towards the current yield level. ⑶ Although the overall auction was successful, the rise in yields of some long-term bonds reflects investors' concerns about future interest rate trends and their cautious sentiment on Indonesia's economic prospects, which may have a certain impact on market psychology.
⑴On Tuesday, the benchmark price of Middle East crude oil showed a differentiation, with the spot premiums of Oman and Dubai crude oil rising slightly, while Murban crude oil remained stable. Saudi Arabia lowered its official price of Arab light crude oil exports to Asia, and the product will be priced at $1 lower in October than in September, at $2.20 per barrel above the average Oman/Dubai price. ⑵The price adjustment vejck.cnes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase production. Prices of other grades of crude oil such as Arabot low-sulfur crude, intermediate and heavy crude oil will also be lowered by 90 cents to $1 in October. ⑶ At the specific transaction level, the premium of Dubai crude oil for cash delivery rose by 14 cents vejck.cnpared with the swap price, reaching US$3.24 per barrel. Market news shows Mercuria after closing the dealThree batches of Upper Zakum crude oil freight loaded in November were announced. Trading data shows that most transaction price ranges are between $69.61 and $69.70 per barrel. ⑷ It is worth noting that an industry executive said at a meeting in Singapore that Trump's tariff remarks are increasingly putting pressure on the already challenged petrochemical industry.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1741, a drop of 0.20%. Before New York, the price of (Euro vs. U.S. dollar) fell on the last trading day, collecting the gains from the previous rise in an attempt to gain bullish momentum which may help it attack the critical resistance of 1.1785, and in addition, the obvious overbought conditions for the price to try to unload (RSI), especially as negative signals emerge, the bullish trend dominates in the short term and trades along the support line of that trend.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.3559, an increase of 0.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day, ready to attack the key resistance level of 1.3585, with the main bull trend dominating on a short-term basis, and its trading was carried out along a supportive slash, and positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continued to exist, strengthening the bull momentum. This is accompanied by the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), although it reaches overbought levels.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3649.06, an increase of 0.38%. Before the New York market, the (gold) price settled with a limited gain in the last intraday trading, with negative overlap signals appearing on the (RSI), exerting negative pressure on the price as it needs to unload some overbought conditions to collect its previous gains, which may push it to make some correction rebound on the near-term basis, with the main bullish trend dominating its trading along a slash.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 41.064, a drop of 0.61%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell on the last trading day due to negative signals on (RSI), affected by the stability of the $41.45 key resistance, trying to obtain positive momentum that could help break through that resistance, as positive support from trading above the EMA50 continues, with the dominant bullish trend, and along the secondary and major slashes supporting the trendOnline trading.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 62.960, an increase of 1.12%. Before New York, crude oil prices weakened their gains today, supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) until they hit the $62.85 resistance level, which puts it under negative pressure to force it to fall back. Dominantly under the major bearish trend in the short term, the continued negative pressure brought by the exchange below the EMA50 has exacerbated the negative impact on the price.
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