Wonderful Introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The Federal Reserve wants to "copy homework" to reduce 50 basis points? The market is actually betting on this!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News--On Tuesday (September 9), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary benchmark correction of the annual non-agricultural data for the 2025 institutional survey at 22:00 Beijing time. The preliminary correction will cover the 12-month cycle as of March 2025, and the final benchmark correction will be included in the employment report released in February 2026. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics clearly stated: "The estimated data of the official agency survey will not be updated based on this preliminary benchmark correction; the final benchmark correction will be included in the official estimate data simultaneously when the Employment Situation Report for January 2026 is released in February 2026." When the BLS released its preliminary benchmark correction for the annual preliminary benchmark in August 2024, it mentioned that in the 12 months ended March 2024, the actual number of new jobs in the US economy was 818,000 less than the initial report, which means that the actual value of employment growth during this period is 30% lower than the initial disclosure value. In response, the Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, and then lowered the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5%. The market reaction at that time was that the US dollar index fell rapidly by 0.78% due to the announcement of interest rates, but then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that policymakers are not in a hurry to cut interest rates significantly in the future, and that the US economic data is strong and inflation is controllable. The latest employment report then showed that the number of non-farm employment increased by 22,000 in August. Prior to this, the number of non-farm employment increased by 79,000 in July (corrected from the initial 73,000), and this value was far lower than the market expectations of 75,000. BLS also pointed out that the number of non-farm employment in June has been revised down from 14,000 to 27,000, and after the correction it is -13,000 (that is, a decrease of 13,000). Before 7Among the employment data released monthly, the growth rate of non-agricultural employment in May has been significantly revised down, from 144,000 to 19,000. On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted at the annual Jackson Hall Economic Seminar that the downside risks in the labor market are gradually heating up, and pointed out that tightened immigration policies have led to a "sudden slowdown" in labor supply growth. According to data from CMEFedWatchTool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year and a cumulative interest rate cut of at least 75 basis points for the whole year has climbed from about 40% before the employment data was released to nearly 75%. And if the preliminary benchmark correction value shows that the U.S. labor market situation is worse than expected, the market may see this as an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to take dovish measures at the upcoming policy meeting. Standard Chartered Bank Global G10
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The Federal Reserve wants to "copy homework" and reduce 50 basis points? The market is actually betting on this!", which is carefully vejck.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.