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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US employment data has been significantly revised down, and the US dollar index fell first and then rose." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 10, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.83. On Tuesday, the U.S. non-farm employment data was revised downward sharply, with the U.S. dollar index falling first and then rising, showing resilience, and finally closing up 0.33% to 97.77. U.S. Treasury yields generally rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.0930%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.5690%. Spot gold broke through the 3670 mark after the initial value of the non-agricultural employment benchmark changes was announced, and then plunged sharply, turning down in the day, and finally closed down 0.32%, closing at $3624.17/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 1.13%, at $40.86/ounce. Israel's attack in Qatar rekindled geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and international crude oil rose. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.50% at $62.76 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.32% at $66.44 per barrel.
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.83. The U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with New York closing at 97.253 to 97.701 from a seven-week low. The move vejck.cnes after a sharp drop in U.S. employment growth, which shows that 911,000 jobs were overestimated between April 2024 and March 2025. This greatly increases the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting, with the market fully digesting the 25 basis point rate hike and believes that the probability of a 12 basis point cut is 50%. Technically, the US dollar index was in JulySupport was found above the low 97.109, but resistance was still firm near the 50-day moving average 98.1 and 61.8% retracement level 97.859. If the index fails to regain these levels, the next major support is at 96.377. Currently, traders are focusing on mid-week U.S. inflation data, which may determine whether the bearish trend will continue or short rebound.
1) Analysis of gold market trends
In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3626.92. Although the employment correction data released by the U.S. Department of Labor was worse than market expectations, gold bulls took the opportunity to take profits; the US dollar index rebounded from a seven-week low, and the U.S. Treasury yield rebounded from a low in the past five months, which also made gold bulls worried. In addition, US stocks continued to hit historical highs, which slightly weakened gold's safe-haven demand. Currently, investors are generally focusing on the U.S. inflation data to be released this week, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment is getting stronger.
Technical: The rising trend of gold prices is reaching the history of $3,674/ounceIt stagnated after the high level and then fell below $3,650 per ounce. As gold prices close down on Tuesday, it is possible to test $3,600 per ounce in the future. If gold weakens further, sellers' next target will be the April 22 high of $3,500 per ounce. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought, but has not yet reached the key threshold of 80, indicating that the bullish trend of gold is still intact. On the upside, if the gold price effectively breaks through $3674/ounce, the next target will be $3700/ounce, then $3750/ounce and $3800/ounce.
On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 62.73. International oil prices rose after the Israeli military said it launched an attack on the leadership of Hamas in the Qatar capital Doha, marking a further escalation of its years of military operations in the Middle East. Qatar, the world's leading energy exporter, condemned the attack as a "cowardly move" and said it violated international law.
①To be determined US Senate vejck.cnmittee votes for the nomination of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors of Milan
②09:30 China's August CPI annual rate
③20:30 US August PPI annual rate
④20:30 US August PPI monthly rate
⑤22:00 US July wholesale sales monthly rate
⑥22:30 US to September 5 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to September 5
⑦22:30 US to September 5 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories that week
⑧22:30 US to September 5 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories that week
⑨The next day 01:00 US to September 10 10-year Treasury bond auction-winning interest rate
⑩The next day 01:00 US to September 10 10-year Treasury bond auction-winning multiple
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