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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: Eurozone bond market abnormal movement, analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange short-term trends on July 22". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.10%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.05%. The German DAX index fell 0.94%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.00%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.67%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.74%.
⑴ On Tuesday, eurozone bond prices continued to rise the previous day, and the thin market liquidity exacerbated the decline in Germany's 10-year treasury yield. ⑵ Germany's 10-year yield, as the euro zone benchmark, is currently flat at 2.61%, after falling 7 basis points on Monday, the largest single-day drop in four months. ⑶ German 30-year government bond yield also fell 8 basis points to 3.15% on Monday and remained stable on Tuesday. ⑷ Rabobank analysts said the market volatility on Monday was "dramatic and difficult to explain", while ING pointed out that the 30-year yield changes were "unexplained by news flow alone". ⑸ Traders are also adjusting positions for the deadline for the US trade tariff remarks on August 1. ⑹ On Thursday, with the release of business activity data and the ECB meeting, market trends may be easier to explain. ⑺The market generally expects the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged, but its wording will be closely watched, and the market currently expects another 25 basis points to cut interest rates this year. ⑻DeThe country's two-year yield remained flat at 1.81%, down only 4 basis points on Monday, resulting in a "bull flattening" in Germany's yield curve. ⑼ France's 10-year yield remained flat at 3.30%, Italy's 10-year yield remained flat at 3.49%. The interest rate spread between the two and Germany continued to narrow to 87 basis points.
⑴ Japan Kyodo News Agency's national emergency telephone poll from July 21 to 22 showed that the support rate of Ishiba's cabinet fell to 22.9%, a drop of 9.6 percentage points from the June survey, setting a record low since taking office in October last year. ⑵ The cabinet's non-support rate rose sharply by 14.9 percentage points to 65.8%, reflecting a significant deterioration in public satisfaction with the current regime. The sharp drop in approval rating this time was the largest single drop during Shipo's cabinet term.
⑴ U.S. Treasury Secretary's adviser Joseph Lavorgna claimed that Trump's tariff remarks were not a cause of inflation, and believed that economists who had previously predicted rising prices were wrong. ⑵Lavorgna pointed out that although some economists see tariff impacts from consumer price inflation data, the overall data remained stable. ⑶ He emphasized that inflation is a sustained rise in prices, not a one-time price level adjustment, and implies that mainstream economists' analysis may be politically biased. ⑷ Lavorgna's vejck.cnments highlighted that debate about whether the price rise caused by Trump's tariff remarks is "temporary", just like the dispute over the nature of inflation after the epidemic. ⑸ Harvard University professor Alberto Cavallo found through model analysis that tariffs resulted in "a rapid price response, but their amplitude was still moderate relative to the announced tariff rates and vary by country of origin." ⑹Laugner's views are in contrast to a May research report by Fed economists, which shows that tariffs imposed on Chinese imports in February and March have affected consumer prices. ⑺However, the White House Economic Advisory vejck.cnmittee also released an analysis that the prices of imported goods actually fell this year. ⑻Feders have disagreements over the impact of tariffs and decisions on interest rate cuts. For example, Fed Director Chris Waller tends to cut interest rates in July, believing that tariffs have limited impact on inflation, while New York Fed Chairman John Williams is cautious. ⑼ Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist at Macquarie Group, pointed out that the vejck.cnments of Federal Reserve officials indicate that there are differences within the Federal Open Market vejck.cnmittee and that if it continues, it may evolve into a dispute over political lines. ⑽This divergence may lead to a steeper U.S. yield curve, reflecting the uncertainty of the market about the future direction of monetary policy.
⑴ A new study shows that one in four German technology startups are considering moving out of Germany. ⑵The main reason is that the most worry about EuropeThe economic slowdown in large economies is affecting their prospects for accessing venture capital. ⑶ A survey by the German digital business association Bitkom showed that about 26% of respondents were considering leaving, and only 23% believed that Germany had sufficient risk capital. ⑷Of the 152 tech startups surveyed, the vast majority (81%) said that investors showed more wait-and-see attitude due to the economic situation. ⑸ Nevertheless, Bitkom pointed out that 79% of vejck.cnpanies still expressed confidence or were very confident in achieving their financing goals. ⑹These startups require an average of 2.5 million euros (about 2.92 million US dollars) of new venture capital per year. ⑺These data reveal the severe challenges facing Germany's science and technology innovation ecosystem, and capital flows and economic prospects are profoundly affecting the strategic decisions of enterprises.
⑴ At 4:38 pm Beijing time on Tuesday (July 22), Nomura Securities economists pointed out in a report that the Bank of Thailand may take a more dovish stance under the leadership of the new president Vitai Ratanakorn. ⑵ The report quoted Vitai's recent remarks, who said that policy interest rates should be significantly lowered over a period of time. ⑶Nomura Securities believes that his appointment may "weak the hawkish position of the Monetary Policy vejck.cnmittee" and support its forecast for further rate cuts. ⑷ However, Nomura Securities also pointed out that the Bank of Thailand may suspend its actions in August to assess the potential impact of U.S. tariffs and the domestic political situation. ⑸ It is expected to resume interest rate cuts in the future, and the Bank of Thailand may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, December and the first quarter of next year. ⑹This series of interest rate cuts will aim to support Thailand's economy and respond to external risks and internal challenges.
⑴ On July 21, Beijing time, Morgan Stanley reiterated its bullish position on the US stock market. ⑵ The report pointed out that strong earnings momentum is the main basis for its bullishness. ⑶The brokerage expects the S&P 500 index to reach 7,200 points by mid-next year. ⑷ Previously, Morgan Stanley expected the S&P 500 index to reach 6,500 points in the second quarter of 2026 in May. ⑸Morgan Stanley's equity strategist Michael Wilson said that as the profit base is solid next year and the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates, the valuation (currently about 22 times) may remain at its current level in the next 12 months. ⑹ However, the brokerage also reminds of potential risks: rising treasury yields, especially when 10-year treasury yields break through 4.5%, may increase stocks' sensitivity to interest rates. ⑺Morgan Stanley expects cost pressures related to tariff rhetoric to emerge later this year, which could impact vejck.cnpany profit margins and push up inflation, changing the Fed's expectations for a rate cut. ⑻ Finally, seasonal trends may cause pressure on stocks from mid-July to August. ⑼ Despite these risks, Morgan Stanley said it would buy on dips, believing that these risks may be temporary and onlyThis leads to a moderate market consolidation. ⑽It is also reported that Jefferies also raised the year-end target of the S&P 500 index from 5,300 points to 5,600 points.
⑴ On Tuesday (July 22), data from market research firm WorldpanelbyNumerator showed that in the four weeks ended July 13, the inflation rate of UK grocery prices rose to 5.2%. ⑵ This is the highest level since January last year, up from 4.7% reported last month, putting more pressure on low-income families. ⑶ The UK is struggling to cope with the continued high inflation, with supermarkets facing rising employee wages, new employer taxes and increased regulatory costs, while vejck.cnmodity prices are also rising. ⑷ WorldpanelbyNumerator data points out that nearly two-thirds of households said they were "very worried" about grocery costs and instead bought supermarket own brand products. ⑸ The inflation level in the UK is higher than that of all major developed economies, about one percentage point higher than that of the United States or the euro zone. ⑹ Grocery sales (by value) rose 5.4% year-on-year in the four weeks ended July 13, thanks in part to warm weather, ice cream and sorbet sales rose 33%, and iced coffee and strawberry sales also rose sharply. ⑺In the 12 weeks ending July 13, Tesco, the largest supermarket chain in the UK, saw sales increase by 7.1% year-on-year, and its market share expand to 28.3%. ⑻Sainsbury's, the second largest retailer, saw sales increase by 5.3%, with a market share of 15.1%. ⑼ Third place Asda's sales fell 3%, lagging behind the industry, while online retailers Ocado and discount stores Lidl and Aldi performed well, with sales rising 11.7%, 11.1% and 6.3% respectively during the same period.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1692, an increase of 0.01%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (EURUSD) price rose at the recent intraday level, opening the way for more gains after successfully getting rid of the apparent overbought situation of (RSI), as it breaks through the bearish correction trend line on a short-term basis, leveraging the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, which provides more bullish momentum.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3481, a drop of 0.08%. Before the New York market, (GBPUSD) price rose in the last trade as it broke through the top of the bearish correction channel, limiting its previous trading in the short term, taking advantage of the current dynamic support of the EMA50 to strengthen the bullishContinuation of the scene.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3397.97, an increase of 0.03%. Before the New York market, the (gold) price rose hard in the last session, ready to attack the main resistance level at $3,400, supported by its trading above the EMA50, and traded with the small deviation line in the short term under the bullish trend of the EMA50. In addition, it abandoned the (RSI) overbought situation and entered the oversold level, representing a strong signal of weak negative momentum and was replaced by a bullish scenario, opening the way to achieve more returns.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.961, an increase of 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose slightly in the final session, ready to attack the key resistance level of $39.00, taking advantage of the obvious overbought conditions on the previous (RSI) to open the way to achieve more returns, dominance of the main bullish trend in the short term and its trading together with today's support bias line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 65.600, a drop of 0.53%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price closed in the last intraday and closed below the $65.60 support level. In addition to the negative signal on the (RSI), the negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continued, strengthening the negative situation after the price successfully got rid of the oversold situation.
Economician Philip Shaw of Tianda Asset Management pointed out in his client report that the UK's public fiscal situation may not be as bad as the latest data show. Data from the UK's National Statistics Office on Tuesday showed that the scale of government borrowing hit the second highest in the month in June, second only to the level during the 2020 epidemic, mainly driven by a surge in debt repayment. Shaw believes that debt interest payments will fall from their current highs and other public spending projects are expected to slow down in the vejck.cning months. But he also warned: "The fiscal situation so far this fiscal year is very disappointing, and (Caissian Secretary) Reeves is almost bound to consider potential tax increases."
Dansk BankThe European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged this week, and the focus of this week will be any signal about the September meeting. vejck.cnmunications from the ECB have been very consistent since the June meeting, with most members agreeing that the ECB is in a good position, and Schnabel (hawkish) said the threshold for another rate cut is very high. The ECB has been downplaying the fact that as long as medium-term inflation expectations are stable, inflation expectations will temporarily fall below the 2% target. The minutes of the June meeting showed that monetary policy should reduce the response to data, and only a big shock means that monetary policy response is needed. Therefore, the ECB will not cut interest rates in July; it will eventually cut interest rates to 1.75% in September, and the risk tends to keep interest rates unchanged. However, given the risks of the trade war, weak services and a slowdown in wage growth that could affect medium-term inflation expectations, the European Central Bank is still expected to cut interest rates in September. The outcome of trade negotiations will be crucial to future policy paths, as the U.S. tariffs on the EU that are above 10% will deviate from the European Central Bank's benchmark assumptions.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Eurozone bond market abnormal movement, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 22". It was carefully vejck.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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