Trade negotiations are becoming increasingly urgent, Trump says Powell is about to leave office

On July 23, during the trading session of the Asian market on Wednesday, spot gold trading was around $3,432 per ounce, and gold prices climbed to their highest five-weeks on Tuesday. Due to trade uncertainty and falling U.S. Treasury yields, investors continued to pay attention to the deadline of tariff negotiations on US President Trump on August 1; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.60 per barrel, and oil prices fell for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, as hopes of a trade agreement between the United States and Europe have slim, exacerbating people's concerns about a slowdown in the world's largest oil market economy.

Only more than a week left before August 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said on Monday that the government is more concerned about the quality of the trade agreement than the time point of the conclusion.

Asked whether it is possible to extend the tariff deadline for countries that have "productive negotiations" with Washington, Treasury Secretary Bescent said President Trump will make the final decision.

Brad Bechtel, global head of Forex, pointed out: "The market is … ignoring the noise (referring to the August 1 tariff deadline) until something really clear happens." He added: "Even if tariffs have been implemented, a lot of economic data actually looks good."

The final direction of global tariff policies is still full of uncertainty, which has become a huge source of pressure for the foreign exchange market, causing most currencies to fluctuate in narrow ranges, although Wall Street stocks have repeatedly set new highs.

Asian Market

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said in a speech today that the Japanese economy may "slow down" amid slowing global growth and potential inflation remains "temporarily sluggish." He added that downside risk is the firstThe main factors of the scenario, especially due to the high uncertainty of global trade policies and its spillover effects on domestic and foreign demand.

Nevertheless, Uchida insists that gradual rate hikes will continue if the central bank's baseline outlook remains unchanged. Due to severe negative real interest rates, the Bank of Japan has the ability to adjust its easing stance, but only if the economic and inflation paths improve as expected.

He also highlighted the cross-flow of inflation in Japan—the pressure from the cost-driven food remains high, while the demand-side force is weak. How businesses adjust wages and prices to deal with these forces will be at the heart of determining the sustainability of price growth.

The Australian Westpac Leading Index fell from 0.11% to only 0.03% in May, continuing to decline for six consecutive months, indicating a weakening momentum into the second half of 2025. The index provides guidance for economic activity over the next three to nine months, but has declined from 0.33% in December, with five of the eight vejck.cnponents being dragged down, especially vejck.cnmodity prices, consumer confidence and working hours.

Westpac pointed out that the transition from slightly above trend growth to "close to trend" signalled a significant decline in economic momentum. The bank now expects its economy to grow by just 1.7% in 2025, slightly higher than 1.3% in 2024, but is still well below the historical average.

As the RBA will meet from August 11 to 12, the leading index increases the reason for re-easing policy. Westpac will see the June quarterly CPI announced next week as a key volatility factor. If the data is good, it could clear the way for a 25 basis point rate cut in August, followed by another rate cut in November and further cuts twice in the first half of 2026 as the central bank gradually relaxes its policies amidst continued growth headwinds.

European Market

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the Finance vejck.cnmittee that the recent rise in long-term borrowing costs reflects global trends rather than problems unique to the UK. In answering questions about the growing costs of government debt, Bailey stressed that other advanced economies have seen similar or even steeper yield growth.

He attributed this shift to two key aspects of increased uncertainty: "One is the uncertainty of current trade policy. The second thing, he said, is the uncertainty of global fiscal policy.

Bailey noted that unpredictable tariff strategies and expanding fiscal deficits are causing volatility in the global fixed income market, thus pushing up yields across the curve. "Obviously, this is greater uncertainty," he said.

U.S. Market

Federal Vice Chairman of Regulation Michel Bauman reiterated the central bank's vejck.cnmitment to policy independence in an interview with vejck.cnBC, saying "It's very important ... We maintain independence in monetary policy."

At the same time, she stressed that this autonomy must be in line withThe promise of openness matches. “We also have an obligation to maintain transparency and accountability,” she noted.

Bowman also stressed the importance of listening to a wide range of voices when formulating monetary policy. She said the Fed has been engaging with different perspectives since joining the board in 2018 to better understand how different parts of the economy are affected.

"This should affect our decisions in monetary policy making," she said.

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