The dollar ends four consecutive declines, Trump puts pressure on Powell to cut interest rates

On July 25, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.43. On Thursday, thanks to the progress of funds between the United States and trading partners, the U.S. dollar index ended four consecutive declines and finally closed up 0.3% to 97.5. The yield on the US Treasury continued to rebound, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.402%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.931%. As signs of easing global trade tensions curb demand for safe-haven assets, spot gold fell for the second consecutive trading day, eventually closing down 0.55% to close at $3368.66/ounce; spot silver fluctuated around the $39 mark and finally closed down 0.52% to $39.06/ounce. International oil prices rebounded as expectations of a decrease in Russia's gasoline exports overshadowed news that the U.S. allowed Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. WTI crude oil stabilized above the $65 mark and finally closed up 1.12% to $65.95 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.75% to $68.57 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.43. A breakthrough deal between the United States and Japan, and hopes of a similar deal between Washington and Brussels, increases risk appetite and reduces risk aversion demand. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have also suppressed market sentiment. However, moderate technical adjustments after recent sell-offs are helping the dollar stabilize. Technically, if the US dollar index successfully closes above the 97.50 level, it will move towards resistance at 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, Euro/USD hovered around 1.1757. The ECB kept its three main reference rates unchanged and chose the way of meetings as there were differences between doves and hawks in the Management vejck.cnmittee. On the data side, the initial HCOBPMI value improved, but manufacturing activity was still in a contraction zone. Technically, if Euro/USD broke through the recent high of 1.1790, it would test resistance at 1.1815–1.1830.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3508. Entering the last trading day of the week, GBP traders find themselves at a disadvantage, but assuming that UK economic data will play a role, there is a last chance driven by data. After a sharp drop of -2.7% in May, UK retail sales in June are expected to rebound to 1.2% month-on-month. Technically, GBP/USD is trying to close below support at 1.3500–1.3520. If this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move to the next support, which is in the range of 1.3370–1.3390.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold hovered around 3371.31. The market's attention is turning to the upcoming U.S. durable goods order data. As an important indicator to measure manufacturing activity and economic health, durable goods order data may provide new clues to the trend of gold prices. If the data performs strongly, it may further strengthen economic recovery expectations and push up the US dollar and US bonds Return rate continues to suppress gold prices. On the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly weak, it may rekindle market concerns about the economic slowdown and boost gold's safe-haven demand. In addition, factors such as geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchase demand and US dollar trends will continue to affect the long-term trend of gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to two key points: one is the subtle changes in the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 30; the other is the final details of the US-EU agreement before the tariff deadline on August 1.

Technical: From the daily chart structure, spot gold prices have appeared in negative lines of medium entities for two consecutive days, which have obviously fallen below the upper track of the Bollinger Band, currently located near $3360. The Bollinger Band is generally showing a slightly narrowing sideways, with the upper track ($3409.04) and the lower track ($3278.88), implying that the current oscillation trend is still in the high box. The relative strength index (RSI) continues to fall, currently located near 52, and there is no obvious stabilityThe signal indicates that there is still momentum for a rebound. Analysts believe that if the area below the $3,320 area, it may further launch a test in the Bollinger band lower rail area.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 65.89. The market is turning to the upcoming U.S. durable goods order data. In addition, factors such as geopolitical risks and US dollar trends will continue to affect the long-term trend of oil prices. Investors need to pay close attention to two key moments: one is the subtle changes in the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 30; the other is the final details of the US-EU agreement before the tariff deadline on August 1.

Technical: Technically, WTI crude oil futures closed slightly higher on the previous trading day. With the help of the positive signal of the RSI low golden cross, the price retested the key resistance level of the $65.60. This rise is accompanied by touching the EMA50 resistance level and retesting the main bullish trend line that breaks through in the short term. The double resistance may become a new ceiling, and the probability of a short-term decline is increasing.

Forex market trading reminder on July 25, 2025

①14:00 UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate

②16:00 Germany July IFO Business Intensity Index

③20:30 US June durable goods order monthly rate

④ The next day 01:00 US to July 25 total oil drilling rigs

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