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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar remains stable, Trump is about to visit the Federal Reserve." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The dollar index hovers around 97,43 on Friday, and the dollar (USD) took a breather after falling to a two-week low on Wednesday, with optimism in the global trade deal boosting market sentiment. The breakthrough deal between the United States and Japan, and hopes of a similar deal between Washington and Brussels, increases risk appetite and reduces risk aversion demand. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve also put pressure on market sentiment. However, moderate technical corrections after recent sell-offs are helping the dollar stabilize.
U.S. dollar: The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded after four consecutive days of decline, but faced resistance at 97.664 and needed to close above 98.400 to confirm the upward trend. Trade optimism boosted the dollar, while the yen gains were limited by political uncertainty and central bank interest rate outlook. The euro fell as the European Central Bank (ECB) considered adjusting its policy stance; a strengthening euro could force central banks to take countermeasures to maintain inflation targets. Technically, although the U.S. dollar index is trying to recover from its four-day decline, the technical structure remains relatively fragile. The price trend is still below the 50-day moving average of 98.400 and has not yet recovered the short-term hub level of 97.664. If a "higher bottom" or at least a secondary higher low point is not formed, the rebound will be unconvincing. Technically, although the U.S. dollar index is trying to recover from its four-day decline, the technical structure remains relatively fragile. The price trend is still below the 50-day moving average of 98.400 and has not yet recovered the short-term hub level of 97.664. If a "higher bottom" or at least a secondary higher low point is not formed, the rebound will be unconvincing.
Data from German market research firm GfK (GfK), shows that as the UK government may increase taxes later this year, British consumers remain cautious this month and increase their savings. The UK July Gfk consumer confidence index fell to -19 from a six-month high in June -18, with an expected 20. Neil Bellamy, head of consumer insights at GfK, said: "These data suggest that some people may have a premonition of a storm in the future. As speculations on possible tax increases in the fall budget are increasing, price pressures have led not only to higher inflation, but also to the futureThe news is worrying with more severe inflation. "The GfK savings index jumped 7 points to +34, the highest level since November 2007 (not long before the global financial crisis deepened).
Trump and Powell had a face-to-face debate on the cost of renovation on Thursday. Powell said the president's view on the cost of renovation was wrong. The two stood together in construction helmets to speak to the media. Trump said the Fed's renovation cost jumped from $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion, and Powell responded: "I don't know about it." "Trump replied: "This is just announced. "Powell once again questioned Trump's data source because it did not vejck.cne from the Federal Reserve. Powell pointed out that the president seems to have added the cost of another building to the two buildings currently being renovated. Trump said he would fire a project manager who overspent. Powell does not expect more overspent, but the Federal Reserve has reserves and can cope if needed.
U.S. President Trump issued a statement saying, It is my honor to visit the renovation site of the Fed Building with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Senator Tim Scott and others (and some new buildings!). The building renovation is still a long way to go, and it would be better if it didn’t start, but it’s here, hopefully it will be done as soon as possible. Cost overspending is huge, but on the positive side, our country is doing well and can afford almost anything – even the cost of this building! I’ve known to have renovated the old post office on Pennsylvania Avenue before Building, a huge success. (Old Post Office Building) Total construction cost is only a small part of the cost of the Federal Reserve building, and it is many times the size of the Federal Reserve building. Having said so much, let's vejck.cnplete it, and more importantly, lower interest rates!
An investment vejck.cnpany led by supporters of U.S. President Trump sued Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed officials, demanding that the Federal Reserve hold a monetary policy meeting in an open manner. In a lawsuit filed Thursday, Azoria Capital, a vejck.cnpany with investor James Fishback, said the FOMC's decades of meetings behind closed doors violated the government's transparency laws. The fund filed a federal court in Washington to ask the Federal Reserve to meet publicly from July 29 to 30. The vejck.cnpany said in the lawsuit: "Azoria is deeply concerned that under Powell's leadership, the FOMC maintains high interest rates, undermines President Trump and his economic agenda, and harms U.S. citizens and the U.S. economy. ”
According to people familiar with the matter, decision makers who advocate another rate cut are being made.Facing increasingly difficult resistance. Some officials said keeping interest rates unchanged in September is becoming a basic scenario. Sources pointed out that officials who support further easing need to provide adequate reasons for their positions, while opponents no longer need to explain their positions. The ECB announced on Thursday that it had suspended interest rate cuts for the first time in more than a year, awaiting more clear signals from European and American trade relations. Governor Lagarde said that inflation has returned to the 2% target, and the economic operation is in line with or slightly better than expectations, and the central bank is in a "waiting and watching mode." After Lagarde's statement, the market significantly lowered its expectations for a rate cut in September. Currently, traders expect the probability of a rate cut in September to be about 25%, lower than the 40% before her speech.
Bank U.S. strategist Alex Cohen said that uncertainty surrounding the prospects of the Fed’s leadership are weakening the dollar’s performance, and the relevant doubts “apparently affect the dollar earlier than other assets” and may be the main resistance for the dollar to fail to rebound. “Even if future leadership changes are carried out in a more conventional way, the market is starting to expect a more relaxed Fed environment,” Cohen pointed out. Trump continues to put pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, and plans to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters today to further highlight signs of political intervention.
Economician Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the vejck.cnherlands International Group, pointed out in the report that the suspension of the euro's recent upward trend and the uncertainty of the US-EU trade negotiations provide a reasonable basis for the European Central Bank to choose to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Shortly after the June meeting, the euro strengthened the possibility of further interest rate cuts in July, but the euro's upward trend has now stalled, and the trade agreement has not been announced between the United States and Europe. The ECB is unlikely to react to the recent strengthening of the euro, and as long as the strength of the euro is seen as driven by fundamentals, the ECB "is likely to continue to wait and see."
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