The Bank of China, the United States and Japan will hit next week!

On July 25, the US dollar (USD) index rose more than 0.3% on Thursday, ending its four consecutive days of decline. Earlier on Friday, financial markets became sluggish as investors awaited the next catalyst. Later that day, June durable goods orders will appear in the U.S. Economic Calendar.

As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting. At the post-conference press conference, ECB President Christina Lagarde pointed out that economic growth risks remained in a downward trend, but reiterated that given the uncertainty of the impact of EU-US trade relations on the economic outlook, economic growth risks remained in a "waiting and watching" state. After a slight closing lower on Thursday, the euro/dollar was still in the consolidation phase early on Friday, at about 1.1750. Later in the session, market participants will closely monitor IFO sentiment surveys from Germany.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the number of people applying for initial jobless claims per week fell to 217,000 from 221,000 in the previous week. This figure is better than the market expectation of 227,000 vehicles. Other data from the U.S. show that private sector business activity accelerated expansion in early July, with the S&P Global vejck.cnprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 54.6 (initial value) from 52.9 in June.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his call for lowering interest rates during his visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent spoke to Fox Business Channel during Trump's visit to the Fed, reiterating vejck.cnmon opposition from the Trump team to the Fed and turning back to talking about the U.S.-China tradeEasy to negotiate and general tariffs. “The United States is in a pretty good position with China in terms of trade,” Besent pointed out. On the same matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is preparing for a new round of trade talks with China next week, focusing on reaching an economic agreement to increase U.S. access to the Chinese market, especially in business and technology. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated narrowly around 97.50 during the European period, with U.S. stock index futures rising 0.1% to 0.2%.

Basic foreign exchange market conditions:

The UK National Statistics Office reported on Friday that retail sales in June increased by 0.9% month-on-month. The data was released after a 2.8% drop in May, but was below market expectations of 1.2% growth. The GBP/USD remained unfavorable in the early European session, trading below 1.3500.

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, vejck.cnpared with a 3.1% increase in June, according to data from Japan earlier on Friday. After the US dollar/yen climbed to 147.50 in Asian trading session, it lost its traction and fell back to the 147.00 area in early European trading.

Bulle market fundamentals:

Following a sharp decline on Wednesday, gold continued to fall on Thursday, falling more than 0.5% on the day. XAU/USD is still facing mild bearish pressure, falling to $3,550 earlier on Friday.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: The euro/dollar has a moderate intraday upward trend, and the rise from 1.1555 will extend to a retest of the 1.1829 high. A firm breakthrough will resume the overall rebound from 1.0176 and aim at the 1.1916 forecast level. However, a breakout of 1.1677 will delay the bullish situation and turn to an intraday bias towards neutral, with more consolidation first below 1.1829.

GBP: The intraday deviation of GBP/USD remains neutral for the time being, and some consolidation will occur. As long as the 1.3363 support level is maintained, it is expected to rise further. Above 1.3587 will bring the bias back to the upside, first retesting 1.3787. However, a continued breakthrough of 1.3363 will indicate that it has corrected the entire rebound from 1.2099 and shifted the target 1.3206 resistance to support.

Yen: The intraday bias of the US dollar/yen remains neutral. As long as the 55-day moving average (currently 145.97) remains unchanged, it is expected to rebound further. On the plus side, a small resistance above 147.94 will be retested at 149.17. The goal of firmly breaking through this point will rise from 151.43 points at 142.66 to 139.87 to 148.64 points. ThisNearly 61.8% of the retracement levels, from 158.86 to 139.87, were 151.22. However, trades that continue to fall below the 55-day moving average will think that the entire rebound from 139.87 may have been vejck.cnpleted and aimed at the 142.66 support level to confirm.

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