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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: IMF warns the UK's economic growth to risks, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 25". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.13%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.05%. The German DAX index fell 0.78%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.38%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.03%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.40%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that UK economic growth may be dragged down by high household savings rates and global trade tensions. The IMF issued a statement on Friday after its executive board vejck.cnpleted its Article 4 consultations with the UK, saying, "Economic growth still faces downward risks. The financial environment is tighter than expected, coupled with the increase in preventive savings from households, may curb the rebound in private consumption and slow down the economic recovery. The ongoing global trade uncertainty may also put pressure on the UK economy by weakening global economic activities, disrupting supply chains, and curbing private investment. A sharp rise in vejck.cnmodity prices may intensify inflationary pressure."
The World Health Organization warns on the 25th that chikungunya virus is spreading in many places around the world, with 119 countries reporting cases and about 5.5 million people facing the risk of infection. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and has symptoms including high fever, severe joint pain and long-term fatigue. About 40% of patients may experience it lasts for several months.Disability over several years can be fatal in rare cases. Dr. Rojas Alvarez, head of the WHO Arbovirus Project, pointed out that about one-third of the population in Larieunion Island in the overseas French province of France is currently infected, and the epidemic situation is similar to the large-scale outbreak in the Indian Ocean region 20 years ago. Cases have been reported in many places in Asia and Europe, including France and northern Italy.
⑴ The US Treasury market has a light trading at the macro level, and the trading volume is far lower than the recent average. ⑵ The yield on the 2-year treasury bond fluctuates around 3.927%, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond hovers around 4.419%, and the yield curve remains in a narrow range. ⑶The market is waiting for the latest progress in the European and American trade agreement and the upcoming U.S. economic data. ⑷ Multiple media reported that Trump once again pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and rarely confronted Chairman Powell, which may exacerbate policy uncertainty. ⑸ Some analysts pointed out that the burden of Trump's tariffs is currently mainly borne by American vejck.cnpanies rather than consumers or foreign countries. ⑹In addition, although Tokyo's core inflation fell slightly in July, it was still higher than the Bank of Japan's target. ⑺The dollar is expected to record weekly declines this week, with market focus shifting to upcoming meetings between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
⑴ The Russian Central Bank decided to sharply lower the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18.00%, a move that exceeded market expectations. ⑵ The central bank pointed out that the current inflationary pressure is declining at a faster-than-expected rate, domestic demand growth slows down, and the economy is returning to a balanced growth track. ⑶ The quarterly adjusted annualized price growth rate in the second quarter has dropped from 8.2% in the first quarter to 4.8%, and core inflation has also dropped from 8.8% to 4.5%. ⑷ The Russian Central Bank expects inflation to drop to 6.0%-7.0% in 2025 and return to the target level of 4.0% in 2026. ⑸ Despite the emerging trend of inflation downward trend, long-term inflation expectations remain high, which may hinder a more sustainable slowdown in inflation. ⑹The labor market has also shown some signs of softening, and although the unemployment rate is at a historical low, the shortage of employees in enterprises is decreasing. ⑺The central bank stressed that monetary policy will remain tightened in 2025 to ensure inflation returns to its target in 2026. ⑻ Despite risks such as slowing global economic growth and falling oil prices, the central bank said it would make further decisions based on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
⑴ ECB member of the ECB's governance vejck.cnmittee and president of the French central bank Villeroy said that if necessary, the ECB must be prepared to lower the key interest rates again. ⑵While the ECB kept interest rates unchanged after its meeting on Thursday, Governor Lagarde said inflation had reached its 2% target, Villeroy stressed that policymakers must remain "flexible". ⑶Villeroy pointed out that the strengthening of the euro is producing a significant deflation effect. ⑷In addition, he believes that the United States is globalHigher tariffs imposed on imported goods in other regions are not expected to lead to higher inflation in the euro zone. ⑸Villeroy also mentioned that Europe faces American protectionism and must strengthen economic and financial integration. ⑹ Although the market still expects another interest rate cut within the year, the probability given is currently reduced. ⑺One official said the threshold for further interest rate cuts was "very high". ⑻European officials expect a trade agreement with the United States to impose a 15% base tariff on exported goods to avoid the 30% tariff that will take effect on August 1.
⑴ On July 25, Paris time, Germany's wind power generation is expected to increase significantly next Monday, close to three times the level on Friday. ⑵ At the same time, as the temperature drops, electricity demand is expected to decline. ⑶LSEG data shows that Germany's wind power generation is expected to increase by 10.4 GW next Monday to 15.6 GW. ⑷ Germany's average wind power supply is expected to peak at nearly 19 GW next Tuesday. ⑸ German electricity demand is expected to fall by 1.9 GW to 50 GW next Monday, and French demand is also expected to fall by 1.9 GW to 40.3 GW. ⑹The availability of nuclear power supply in France fell by two percentage points to 75% of the total capacity. ⑺In terms of market prices, Germany's base load power rose by 0.6% to 85.30 euros per megawatt-hour next year. ⑻ European carbon market benchmark contract rose slightly by 0.3% to 71.07 euros per metric tonne.
⑴ On Friday, Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose to a four-month high, and investors' expectations for a sharp rate cut by the European Central Bank weakened. ⑵ The market's optimism about European and American trade negotiations has also prompted funds to flow out of safe-haven assets. ⑶ The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday, and Governor Lagarde said policymakers' concerns about slowing economic growth and inflation have eased, triggering a sharp rise in bond yields. ⑷ Market optimism is growing, and the EU is expected to reach a trade agreement with the United States, with tariff rates likely below 30% threatened by Trump. ⑸ Germany's 2-year government bond yield also rose to its highest level since April 3, up 3.6 basis points to 1.947%. ⑹The yield on the benchmark 10-year German Treasury bond rose 6 basis points to 2.75%, a new high since the end of March. ⑺ European Central Bank officials revealed that the threshold for interest rate cuts in September is very high, and economic growth and inflation will require a significant deterioration in order to further relax policies. ⑻The latest data shows that business activity in the euro zone rose to an 11-month high in early July, German business confidence improved, and bank loan growth rate hit a two-year high, both pointing to a more optimistic economic outlook. ⑼Money markets show that traders are still hesitant about whether the ECB will cut interest rates again this year, believing that the probability of interest rates falling below 2% by the end of December is about 30%.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1725, a drop of 0.19%. New York CityBefore the market, (EURUSD) fell in the last trading after reaching overbought levels before, and was affected by negative signals from (RSI), indicating that the intraday price track began a natural correction process.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3452, a drop of 0.43%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price fell sharply in the last intraday trading as the continual attempt to find rising lows as the basis to help it get the positive momentum needed to recover, and under the dominance of short-term bullish correction waves, its trading is traded along with the support bias line of this trend, as its trading is higher than the dynamic positive pressure represented by the EMA50, and (RSI) reaches oversold levels, which is exaggerated vejck.cnpared to the price trend, a healthy signal to reduce negative momentum around the price.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3341.81, a drop of 0.79%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose slightly in the last session, supported by positive signs of (RSI), and began to rebound higher after reaching the oversold level, increasing the chances of recovery, which occurred after the intraday bearish wave, helping the price to form an upward low and become a new upward point upward.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 38.773, a drop of 0.66%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell in the last session as the key resistance level stabilized at $39.10, trying to get a bullish momentum that could help it break through that resistance level, while its trades are continuation of dynamic support represented by trade above the EMA50, maintaining the stability of the major bullish trend in the short term, with positive signals appearing on (RSI) as it trades along the bias line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.350, an increase of 0.50%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price rose in the last trading after breaking through the negative pressure below the EMA50 in the previous trading, opening the way to resume bullish momentum.
⑴ Citi released a research report pointing out that the monetization trend of Alphabet's search business improved, paid clicks increased by 4% year-on-year, and the large-scale transaction volume of Google Cloud Platform (GCP) increased by more than 2 times year-on-year. In addition, the profit margin expanded, we are optimistic about its prospects.
⑵ The report emphasizes that Google's AI technology supports use cases continue to expand, the number of vejck.cnmercial and AI queries has grown steadily, and the global launch of AI-O, the expansion of AI model and the popularization of Gemini applications have promoted new products to be recognized by the market.
⑶Citi reiterated its "buy" rating, and its target price increased from US$203 to US$225, believing that it is one of the best targets in the Internet industry. The search business accelerated its growth in 2024, thanks to AI/machine learning investment and e-commerce focus.
⑷ Google has a product matrix of 15 monthly active users with over 500 million and 7 monthly active users with over 2 billion, which continues to drive search usage, and Gemini2.5Pro and extended AI models perform well.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: IMF warns the UK's economic growth to be at risk. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 25" was carefully vejck.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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